Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 4.232227 5.050804 5.960275 7.042074 8.290000 9.680496 11.343065
2025-04-06 2.914405 3.974612 5.288676 7.020215 9.222841 11.910594 15.415237
2025-04-13 2.109357 3.237127 4.774191 6.982219 10.025338 14.018047 19.588179
2025-04-20 1.748658 2.964708 4.758066 7.520936 11.578124 17.209129 25.479205
2025-04-27 1.417282 2.636985 4.570974 7.744198 12.672403 19.854171 30.875682
2025-05-04 1.187343 2.404932 4.465835 8.040882 13.869974 22.726636 36.832749
2025-05-11 0.962012 2.120075 4.209812 8.034635 14.565517 24.883687 41.892037
2025-05-18 0.751536 1.805772 3.835280 7.753147 14.751831 26.234104 45.793100
2025-05-25 0.577997 1.516467 3.444211 7.366365 14.686800 27.139504 49.023394
2025-06-01 0.472161 1.342727 3.238930 7.281380 15.122103 28.884861 53.727501
2025-06-08 0.386910 1.191802 3.048426 7.188778 15.518727 30.578694 58.451648
2025-06-15 0.351701 1.155601 3.096796 7.582074 16.867039 34.041118 66.442741
2025-06-22 0.299856 1.063019 3.006581 7.684048 17.685838 36.667851 73.258347
2025-06-29 0.251561 0.965447 2.886004 7.703572 18.346189 39.068958 79.873887
2025-07-06 0.209464 0.871828 2.755109 7.677929 18.907475 41.326879 86.392092
2025-07-13 0.198587 0.876052 2.879196 8.268593 20.838951 46.371168 98.422962
2025-07-20 0.175798 0.831440 2.862040 8.513136 22.038990 50.063727 108.131103
2025-07-27 0.158395 0.800161 2.875846 8.835936 23.443646 54.263453 119.068414
2025-08-03 0.134104 0.732448 2.768328 8.829455 24.094150 56.971719 127.265336
2025-08-10 0.106856 0.639570 2.561428 8.524044 24.008636 58.140124 132.482340
2025-08-17 0.082600 0.546424 2.328405 8.104080 23.593565 58.566779 136.218213
2025-08-24 0.068483 0.493829 2.217422 8.011778 23.970593 60.722164 143.610911
2025-08-31 0.056623 0.445885 2.110014 7.911178 24.312739 62.819918 151.001695